Tuesday, October 6, 2009

SIGNS

As he presses the start button he hears the door behind him close. He thinks “what kind of nonsense today?” Checking the blog, no comments and so he types in the USCL home page. With no one else awake he will be left undisturbed to read the other blogs and discern their mistakes. His thoughts as his only companion he begins. “Ah, the Commish has pointed out my ranting again” this causes him to feel a bit of pride and his back straightens in the chair. He reads further. “Oh my, the Wavemaster has written this weeks predictions. He surely has Boston and the Mechanics, I wonder who else” As his eyes pass over the words a spark tingles deep in him, near his feet. A sensation that something is near, yet unapparent. “What?” he whispers. “The Wavemaster has mentioned me in his predictions?” His thoughts raced as if chasing cheeseballs with legs. “A mere comment from the Wavemaster is as sweet as praise from Jupiter himself” he thought. Just as quickly his mood returned to the standard flatline of daily life. “… never picks his own team, Seattle, to win!” This was certainly not praise of any form and he knew it. “The fool” his words spattered from his lips “the proof is right in front of him and he dismisses it like so much lint.” Yes, it was true. GM Benjamin had commented that picking your own team was bad luck and how could the Wavemaster question such thinking. “Not to accept a superstition is one thing, to openly question it is certainly bad luck” Now he knew, there was no way back. “He passes it off on me, trying so cleverly to get me to blindly pick the Sluggers, the fool” Considering the situation he turned his mind to the superstition. How could Wavemaster appreciate it? He didn’t live in the northwest where the rain is so prevelant that the only homes without a “waterview” are those that are also windowless. How could Wavemaster understand. “Well” he thought “unlucky for him, he picked New Jersey and his Scorpions won the match. That will come back to haunt him. Hah!” There was a satisfaction in knowing that Wavemaster would be gratified with a single match victory, while the gods would certainly be appeased later with larger gain. “Time to move on, there are matches on Wednesday to consider. Who wins?” He clicked over to the lineup sheet to review the matchups for Wednesday. Carolina against Boston appears to him a sure mismatch, though the Cobras would like nothing more from their season than to bite the Blitz, without a heroic effort from 2 of Carolina’s players it surely won’t happen this week. How about Tennessee and Dallas? Easiest would be to pick the Tempo with 2 GM’s, but Dallas has the advantage on the bottom 2 boards. The complexities melted away from him as his mind approached the problem more distinctly. Yes, on the bottom two boards Dallas is better and it is likely that one of the IM’s on the top 2 will play a game like no other. Everyone else will either pick the Tempo or just conclude a tie based on each side having 2 good boards, I will do what Warren Buffet would do , go contrarian and pick Dallas! The next match for review was San Francisco and Miami. His eyes focused on the lineup “Ah, the Mechanics have let the Wolff out of the bag!” This was certainly a ploy to garner positive predictions. Miami was commonly under estimated by some, but they did rely on their first board. This could be too much for the Sharks to overcome, yet it might not be enough to guarantee the Mechanics a victory. That was it, he knew it in his feet. A tie was the sure result! Finally, he had come to the Queens versus Seattle lineups. The names danced in front of his eyes as he tried to weigh the pros and cons. Checking rating differences, the boards where Seattle had black were much closer than the white boards. Each team had a certain rating advantage on one of the even numbered boards. “If the boards with black are about equal and the boards with white tilt one for each team the result looks even?” he wondered. Still, Slava on second board was quite possibly the most under appreciated player in the league and sould easily tilt the match toward Seattle. No, that thought was countered easily by wondering if Sinanan would lose that bit of magic he had recently been privy to? This is Seattle after all, a place where the qualitative properties of apples and oranges give way to the differences between toxic mushrooms and poisonous toadstools. Seattle, where weather forecasts have “showers, giving way to rain”. Seattle, the only city in America that could lose its basketball team to… Oklahoma City! “No!” his fist slammed the counter. “No, something will go wrong. This match is no more than a tie at best!” He sipped his coffee slowly, 3 day old Folgers was certainly not as good as Starbucks, but also much less expensive. With his predictions in order he once again reviews the lineups to make sure there hadn’t been a late lineup change sent in just to cause his failure. “The fool” he thought, “no way back!” He set down his cup and placed his fingers on the keyboard and began to type…



Submitted with admiration to the memory of the late Victor Mollo and respect to Dean Wormer, Wavemaster, all 9 of my readers and anyone else who happens to stumble onto this by accident.
Ttyl and have a nice day

Sunday, October 4, 2009

VOODOO CHILD

Hey Sluggers fans... and anyone else with the intellectual acumen to read this blog. I have several topics to discuss, so right to it.
First off, the Monday night matches. New York versus Baltimore looks like a match for bragging rights... to third place in the East. Some might call it an "East Coast Pillow Fight", but not me! (Eddie made me write that). The Knights are getitng their bag in order, while Baltimore can't seem to find a track. I like the Knights. Philadelphia is an obvious favorite over Chicago and I don't see any reason to go against that. Arizona gets a crack at the top team in the league, the Knockouts. This is a match that I think both teams will be a little surprised by the other's actual strength. New Jersey has been having a great season by finding ways to win close matches, I give them the nod.
The back half of the season promises to have some really fun matches. We all know that Oct. 19 is when New Jersey squares off with Boston, but don't miss this Wednesday's rematch of Miami and San Francisco. Miami has a good match the following week with Seattle and in the final week we have Boston against New York. There are sure to be plenty of thrills and spills as almost every match will have some playoff bearing and could be critical to the final standings.
A big shout out to GM Benjamin for his midseason report which is quite entertaining. I would hope that he is planning another piece with a few more teams, but mostly I think that I can read between the lines in his writing and have an answer for him. NO, the league will not allow a panel of 3 French judges to score the game of the week contest!
Lastly, a big "Hi" to Ilya. He seems to be a great guy and about once a year he sheds a bit of light into his thought process. First off, Ilya says he doesn't know "who is HA81" and then proclaims that I am not a player. I will confirm that I am not a participant in the play, but still that logic is poor. Next, he "doesn't know what ha81 stands for". Ok, sit on the Black side of a chess board, look at the file furthest to your left - the 'H' file, next to the file furthest to the right - 'A' file- and now look at the closest and furthest ranks - 8 and 1. I think that explains it all! Now, he comments that he wasn't talking to me. Uh, whose blog are you responding to Ilya? Then, as if to wouhd my pride he states that no more than 5 or 10 people read my "idiotic and honestly quite boring blog"! Oh Death, where is thy sting? Ilya, stick on topic. You didn't like the power rankings, but didn't offer any alternatives! Here it is Ilya, when you talk you are representing the fine folk of Boston and giving "imbeciles" like me both the ammunition and opportunity to crack jokes on you. As for my readership, I woud be happy with 5 to 10, as long as they were reading to find a bit of entertainment. If my stuff is so boring Ilya, please do not read it. I will be ok with 4 to 9 readers as long as you are not one of them. You are a fine 4th board in the league, but don't quit your day job!
Word to "Wavemaster"... I was only defending myself, no negative thoughts intended. We are all friends here, just that some are "more friends" than others.
ttyl and have a nice day

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Black is Black

Hi Sluggers fans, I have the week 5 wrapup of the Sluggers match with Tennessee. Before we get started I need to ask Dean Wormer... er I mean the Commish to notify the local transit folks about the USCL schedule so that our bus drivers know that it is ok to excede the posted speed limit on Wednesday nights during the season. I was a couple of hours late for the start of the match because of this and want to apologize to anyone trying to find the start on Twitter. To the match...

My previous post explained why this was going to be a difficult match for the Sluggers, so no need to rehash. Just watch the details, like my dad told me "the devil is in the details".

Bd. 1 Seattle's lone GM Serper played the White side of the Nimzo Indian defense versus GM Ehlvest. A pretty book type line with 12... g6 being new. A small exchange of barbs occured with white's d4 going in exchange for Black's g6 and the GM's went to a perpetual. After the exchange on e6 at move 15 Black is looking to get Qh4 in, so White just played safe. I arrived only for the final half dozen or so moves of this game.

Bd. 4 This was finished when I arrived. An old g3 line against the Taimanov Sicilian. It looked like Justice was much better prepared than Sinanan as White gained quite an easy advantage. The reason I won't comment on preparation is that the White moves are not too difficult and could have just been OTB inspiration. Anyway, from a distance I think White could have made life quite a lot easier at move 18 by playing 18. Bxd7 Bxd7 19. Ne4 Qc6 20. Nf6+ Kh8 21. Nxd7 and it looks like Black is still going down the ex, but White will have a lot fewer issues later on. In the game Sinanan was able to drum up quite a good initiative for the ex and turned it into a point.

Now we come to the games that I saw a fair amount of

Bd. 3 A slightly offbeat opening choice saw Black's dark square bishop end up on c3 and it would draw a lot of attention. The only place I might question the opening is at move 10 where White might have better than Re1. As the game went, the sector in the square d4/a4/a1/d1 became kind of a sinkhole. Some adventurous play by both sides ended with White a full rook down, but trapping Black's queen. The price would be the other rook, so Rohonyan played to make the best effect of it. Unfortunately she become a bit too embroiled in improving things that she allowed Bick to save the queen. Some off hand attempts followed, but Black eventually picked up the point.

Bd. 2 With a GM facing an FM this appeared to be the most favorable board for the Tempo. A Rauzer Sicilian was played and followed several games up to the 18th move. Shabalov is known to work quite a bit on his openings, so there is no way of knowing where his prep ended. Playing to get the Black king in the center Shabalov sac'd the exchange on f5. As the game progressed it appeared that any initiative gained from the sac was short lived as Slava took control. With both sides short of time Black just wedged forward and was able to pick up the full point! A most unexpected result.

There you go, the details. In my prediction I did pick a draw on first board and suggested that a point for Tennessee on second wasn't a given, I didn't see how close Seattle would be to losing on 4th board nor the insanity that would appear on 3rd. Details, I tell you details. What I really didn't see was White scoring 1/2 point out of the match! Normally a 3 1/2 out of 4 performace would be something unusual, but Seattle had a 3 1/2 match for Black versus Arizona and this rounds Philly - Queens match went them one better with a 4-0 shutout for Black!

So, until me next slow moment ... have a nice day and ttyl

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Foggy Mountain Breakdown

Some years ago a local comedian stated that being a sports fan in Seattle is "like loving a woman you can't stand!" I won't lie, I have only been about 70 percent Seattle fan when it comes to sports teams, what I have noticed is the number of deja vu experiences concerning Seattle sports. Well, here is another one. The Seahawks played Chicago on Sunday without their 5 best players and lost, now Seattle plays Tennessee without there top GM. I tell you, it is eerie! To be fair, the Seahawks should have won, but there is that deja vu thing again. Back to reality. To my eye this match appears to confirm how strong the league has become. Despite drawing with West leading, and perenial powerhouse, San Francisco plus defeating the 2 time defending champions from Dallas this could be the Sluggers toughest match yet! Think about it, besides not having Nakamura Seattle has the challenge of facing 2 GM's and Tennessee hasn't lost to Seattle since 2007! That's right, last season the 2 matches were a tie and a Tennessee victory. All of this adds up to a load of trouble for the Sluggers. Now, take a deep breath and work with me here...

We can break down the match to top boards and bottom boards. Tennessee definitely has the advantage on the top boards with 2 world class GM's, but how much of an advantage? Serper is not chopped liver and certainly has the ability to score on first board. Slava is quite capable of scoring against GM's on board 2, but we shouldn't sugar coat that he is a big underdog against Shabalov. On the bottom 2 boards WGM Rohonyan is experienced and with the white pieces a probable favorite against Bick, while Josh has a rating advantage against Justice. My feeling is that the Sluggers will get 1/2 point out of the top 2 and either Rohonyan or Sinanan will win for sure. Where the match comes down is whether Seattle gets both points on the bottom 2 or not. Josh with Black concerns me a little, but he did win last week. Rohonyan is a pretty solid bet to at least draw. I want to say that Seattle wins to keep up with the West leaders when Slava gets an unexpected plus result, but I am going to predict a 2-2 tie.

In the other Wednesday matches: I like Philly over Queens based on better results with White, New Jersey will defeat Chicago in a close match, I mean time trouble on 2 boards and nobody can keep up close. It seems like all of Chicago's matches are like that. San Francisco will defeat the Knights for a very simple reason, the Knights historically don't come totally to life until the 6th week and finally Dallas over Arizona only because it will cause more confusion in the playoff race.

That's all for now, but keep a look out for my posts... stuff just flies into my head and I have to write it, so this blog could be updated at literally any second!

Have a nice day and ttyl

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Sitting around, kind of bored, another couple of days wait for USCL action I started thinking about BionicLime's "Power Rankings". Actually, thinking about how much grief Bio seems to get over them. I understand that every fan feels their team isn't getitng any respect and wants to let the world how unjust this is, never realizing that the world is more in tune with the mathematics Bio uses than the overzealous emotion the fan has, well every fan except for yours truly. Eventually, I decide to try my hand at some rankings, not as an avocation or to produce irrefutable evidence of my team's coming epoch. No, I decided to come up with my own rankings for one reason, entertainment. My own entertainment, but if you get something out of it all the better.

I have neither the patience or spreadsheet skills of BionicLime, so I came up with another way. I wanted my method to be simple because, frankly my boredom is a direct result of being lazy and I don't think it is fair to ask me to change for some stupid rankings. My final plan was this: rank the teams by i) Match score, ii) game points and iii) opponents average rating. Here is my list for the teams after USCL week 4:

1) New Jersey
2) San Francisco
3) Boston
4) Seattle
5) Miami
6) Baltimore
7) Tennessee
8) New York
9) Arizona
10) Queens
11) Dallas
12) Philadelphia
13) Chicago
14) Carolina

Ok, the first thing to note is this isn't a perfect list... I mean it doesn't factor in the level of competition each team has faced. Still, it is based on the teams performance so far. I will be very curious to see how it compares to BionicLime's rankings this week. So much for the science (ugh), now for the perception. I have to tell you that Chicago hasn't really struck me as the second team from the bottom? They got pummeled the first 2 weeks, but have come on by winning over Tennessee and almost drawing with the Mechanics. They might not be as strong as some of the other teams, but they come to play. Next team to make an impression is Dallas. I think the Destiny have suffered from 2 things; inconsistent focus on where to win matches and the other teams are really gunning for them. I don't think they are out of the playoff picture yet. Boston is interesting from the perspective that any reasonable improvement in their record ( my suggestion is a tie with Dallas) would only move them up to second. For all the surprise that the loss to Dallas caused, it was only one match. I would say that Philadelphia is a bit of a disappointment, but maybe their past success was due to over achievement? Otherwise, I don't think any of the teams is much out of place. New Jersey is on top simply because of their perfect match record yet I wouldn't have bet that they would be out of the top 4 at the start ( honesty time: I rarely bet on anything and when I do it is not on somebody else ). That is my perception of the league after 4 rounds.

Two matches on Monday night. Baltimore vs. Boston - this is one of those matches that reminds me of "vector analysis". That is, Baltimore is coming off a win, has some momentum and is running into Boston which seems to have refound the train tracks it was on. Baltimore is a favorite on board 2 while Boston has the edge on 3 and 4. I just have the notion that this is too good an opportunity for Baltimore and they will pull it out. Carolina - Miami 2 teams playing for completely different things. Miami is looking to stay in the race for first in the west while Carolina is looking to earn some respect. We can gauge how much vigor the Cobras have for the rest of the season on this match by their performance here. Miami is the easy pick, and as I said I am lazy so i will take them.

Well, that killed a good 30 minutes... wonder if I have any cheesy puffs around here???

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Our Fearless Captain

Ride Captain Ride

Week 4 is in the books and the league is chugging along. Seems like just another week, you know Jersey won, Frisco won, Seattle won... oh yeah Seattle won! They defeated the 2 time defending champs from Dallas by 3-1 and keeps them on directly on the heels of the Mechanics. Here is a look.

Bd. 1 For the second week in a row Nakamura faced the Reti/English by fianchettoing the QB followed by c5 and then K-side fianchetto. Ah, I remember the days when this was termed "the two pockets" defense. Anyway, Bartholomew on first board for the Destiny arranged to play Nd5 and exchange knights and black square B's while opening the c-file. Eventually all the heavy pieces came off on the c-file leaving an ending of 1 knight and white square B each. White had more space, but Black had a better knight plus more flexible center pawns. Bartholomew was short of time which might have led to some of his problems. Naka reached a knight versus bishop ending. One question I had was at move 48 if White hadn't exchanged e4xf5 would the result have been the same. In the game Naka used a very nimble knight and a central pawn wedge to get the point

Bd. 2 Opened as a Reti with d5,c6,Bg4 for Black. Slava played Ne5 and then d4 in the opening. It resolved itself into a position where White had c5,d4,f4,g3 in and 2 B's versus a very compact c6,e6 for Black with 2 B's. Ludwig decided to leave an exchange on d5, but couldn't get anything going. A second exchange was gone in the melee and Slava avoided any accidents to score the point.

Bd. 3 Kiewra played the Rossolimo Sicilian the old fashioned way, with c3 and d4 instead of a quick exchange on c6. I don't think Lee was entirely familiar with the line, but kept his position stable. White sac'd an exchange on e5 for the black square B and lots of chances, forcing Lee to defend. Michael gave the exchange back, but Kiewra kept a pawn advantage. Black sac'd his B on h3 for some kind of phantom which didn't materialize and after a couple of tactical flurries lost.

Bd. 4 Went directly into a Semi Slav. Both sides manoueverd for some moves, with Black having handing c and d pawns. They proved to be a liability as Black was not able to inject an activity into the position. Eventually Sinanan picked up the c5 pawn followed by a6, then forced queens off. The pure rook ending appeared a bit rushed, but then Josh had been playing with less than 3 minutes for many moves. Eventually the board was cleaned up and Zorigt called it a night.

Ok, I will be honest... except for the course of board 1 and the rambuctious play by White late on board 4 I pretty much had this match nailed. Michael and Josh got a point between them and Seattle won the match. I didn't see Slava winning, but it was a bonus. The Sluggers seem to be picking up a bit of momentum at a good time. Their next match is with Tennessee, a squad that defeated them last year and just narrowly missed defeating Miami last week. They will not be pushovers. The potential clash of Ehlvest and Nakamura on board 1 will be quite interesting and past history suggests that Seattle has trouble on board 3 versus either Andrews or Bick. We will have to wait to see the actual lineups, but for now it promises to be a very interesting contest.

In the other matches, I picked incorrectly for New York over NJ and thought the Inventors would be a tougher test for Boston. I did get Queens defeating Carolina. So, I am 2 - 4 in matches and minus 6 in game points. Maybe that game point idea wasn't so hot?

ttyl and have a nice day