Friday, September 18, 2009

Hazy Shade of Winter


But look around,
leaves are brown now
And the sky
is a hazy shade of winter

Topic for discussion: Perception versus science! Talk amongst yourselves! It is week 4 of the USCL season which is the time that matches start having some real relevance. Oh, I know how all the teams have little rivalries and grudges that would carry on no matter what, but now we are getting to the stage where teams are getting separated into the serious contenders and the delirious pretenders. Or possibly, it is just our view of it that makes the teams seem to shape their future aspirations? I bring this up because we have a "Power Ranking" to discuss thanks to that devoted servant of the USCL BionicLime. Very nice, very pretty, very... nice. I don't really quite know what else to say. The Limester has done a great job of getting this list together and even states that there is a scientific formula which is used! Bravo I say, Bravisimo! Thing is, I kind of feel like this science is... misguided? Here is where we witness the separation of perception and science. In the first place, I would never question the placement of Boston at 11, though Bio saw fit to include a disclaimer. That is part of his perception, that Boston backers would be in an outrage that their beloved heroes would be anywhere lower than just slightly above first place! I of course share that perception, but it is irrelevant. Let us not think of Boston, instead let our minds wonder to the breezy shores of Miami. Here folks you have a team many regard as a true power in the league, with a 2-1 record after three rounds, in position 7 which is two places lower than Dallas, who by the way Miami defeated! Now, let me be clear... I am not suggesting anything negative of either team, for be it from me to try to alter the perception that each of these teams is worthy of much higher stature in the rankings. No no, I am instead intrigued by the science which brought this about. This seems a bit, odd.

Or try this. Checking my local tv listings to see which matches would be worth watching this week I naturally took note of my Sluggers run up with Dallas, a rivalry that carries weight as well as history. I mean, aren't the Sluggers the last team to defeat Dallas in a playoff match? Glancing just a bit further I was of course most happy to see that New York and New Jersey would be at it again, kind of like some something out of " The Godfather " (hey, Robert Deniro as Joel Benjamin?) . With these two matches in mind I quickly jumped over to the power rankings, low and behold Seattle v. Dallas is 3 versus 5, while the Rumble near the Bronx is 1 versus 4 ( I have never been to New York or New Jersey, so just having a little fun, no reason to get upset). Wow, could any matches be closer than those? Well, I am glad you asked me that question. Tennessee at number 8 is hosting Miami at 7! I want you to know that I have the utmost respect for the Tempo, but my perception is that they aren't quite as much of a power as Miami. Is my perception that far off base? You see, there is the rub.

Now, before Biomaniac starts melting down or whatever Lime's do when they get frazzled, let me just say this. I am not trying to denegrate the work that has gone into the power ranking. I am also not trying to get them changed. What I am saying is, don't use the power rankings when talking to your bookie. They are not very useful for purposes of handicapping matches. They do however provide a fun and delightful way to infuse blogs with really stupid stuff, like dumb human tricks.

Back to science and perception. I am reading the "press" coming out of Arizona and wondering just how exactly did the match with Seattle go. You know, how Mikhailuk forgot the rules of the game by playing a lame opening and got what he deserved as opposed to fantastic concept of a double fianchetto to exchange pieces that Barcenilla played. Uh, ok my sarcasm meter just dinged... hang on a second. I mean really, is it necessary to make so much out of lame openings? Nobody down there pointed out that Black went 3.5 out of 4 in the match! There was even less comentary from the Scorps about how there pre mach prediction was... lame. I know that there will be flames about this all over the place, but I am sticking up for a player on my team. I don't pull punches on the Sluggers ( kind of a pun there), so why should you guys?

Perception. The Sluggers are probably feeling real good with themselves. I sure hope not. Their next match is with Dallas. It is easy to play a match with a team that is ahead or has the same score and get psyched for it. Dallas is behind in the crosstable, but looking to get back into the race. This is an important match for the Sluggers and I hope they know that and react accordingly. We can't just expect them to get lucky every time. I don't know what the lineup is going to be, but whoever is playing boards 3 and 4 have to know that they are most likely underdogs, get ready with that thought in mind. Those are likely to be the boards that decide the match.

Ok, I have exhaled again. Time to let somebody else rant. I have only one request. If you are going to comment on my post, at least bring something to the table. When you see a comment from Anonymous that says "Idiot" you know that somebody's mother got them up to 5 letter words, but not into the complete sentence concept. Please, make this interesting.

Thanks and ttyl

15 comments:

Bionic Lime said...

Thank you for posting this constructive criticism. You made me go back and look at the formulas for an explanation, only to realize that I forgot to increase the current week counter on the spreadsheet, and thus what I posted was wrong.

Here is the correct list.

1 - San Francisco 1.000
2 - Seattle 0.931
3 - New Jersey 0.922
4 - Miami 0.883
5 - New York 0.843
6 - Dallas 0.813
7 - Arizona 0.801
8 - Tennessee 0.737
9 - Philadelphia 0.718
10 - Chicago 0.699
11 - Boston 0.691
12 - Queens 0.562
13 - Carolina 0.543
14 - Baltimore 0.527

Mea culpa.

Anonymous said...

Still looks wrong. He needs to twiddle with another gizmometer.

Bionic Lime said...

So what's wrong with this list, anon? I'd be happy to try and explain some of the rankings.

Anonymous said...

You've got Chicago at 0.699 Froozles and Boston at 0.691 Clembars.

Does this mean you believe Chicago is more "powerful" than Boston?

HA81 said...

I want to say that it takes a very confident, very big person to recheck their numbers and come out and admit a mistake. BionicLime is quite a distinguished member of the USCL community and has only done more for the Bio rep. Thanks for responding.

To Anonymous, Chicago being ahead of Boston is only a matter of performace to this point in the season. Don't go balistic that Boston is below other teams in the power rankings, there are still 7 weeks for the Blitz to assume the overlord position that they seem to ascend to each season. Well, except when they play Dallas in the finals!

Bionic Lime said...

Chicago and Boston are essentially equivalent. Looking at the numbers, it really comes down to the quality of opposition. Chicago has played Arizona (1.5-1.5), Tennessee (1.5-1.5), and Miami (2-1). Boston has played Queens (0.5-2.5), Carolina (0.0-3.0), and Dallas (1.0-2.0). Thus, even though Chicago is 1-2 and Boston is 2-1, the model puts Chicago ahead of Boston (but not by much at all).

In any case, it is still early. Three weeks is not enough time to put a lot of faith in the model. I think after this upcoming week, the model should be reasonably good, and especially after week 5.

And, thanks, HA81 for the vote of support.

Ilya said...

If your model thinks Chicago is stronger than Boston then you need to dump your model and find a better one. They also used to think the earth was being supported by the three whales but eventually they realized it wasnt the case, lets see how long it will take you.

HA81 said...

I must say, you gotta love Ilya. He is kind of like one of the villagers in an old black and white horror movie. Ok, one more time and slowly. This doesn't reflect anyone's beliefs, this is a model that isn't static, so it is likely to change where the teams rank, what this says is that before the 4th round the teams performed in this order based on a mathematical sequence. I won't comment on Boston's matches, just that they needed to pick it up a bit. They beat Philly, good for them. Now, put the torch down Ilya, have an ice cream and speak only when spoken to. Ok?

Ilya said...

I don't know who is ha81 or what it stands for but I am pretty sure I wasn't talking to it and therefore I don't think I have to ask its permission when I speak. Let me remind this HA81 entity that I actually play in this league compared to HA81 -- a blogger whose idiotic and honestly quite boring rants are read by no more than 5-10 people . Be grateful that the players actually come on and respond you imbecile.

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