Sunday, September 19, 2010

Monday Matches Predictions

Because of evident flaws in my system, changes are being made to predict the monday matches. For last week's Wednesday matches, I got only 50% of the results correct, which was because my system did not take into account the draw factor mainly because draws don't happen that often.

The Original: flip the state quarter of North Dakota once. The team with the white colors gets heads; the team with the black colors gets tails. The coin flip is used for all four matches.

The New: flip the state quarter of North Dakota twice! If heads and tails come up, its a draw. If heads comes up twice, the team with the white colors is predicted to win. If tails comes up twice, the team with the black colors is predicted to win.

The Math: draws are now expected to occur 50% of the time, and a decisive result will occur 50% of the time. The probabilities make sense, because 50% of the Week 4 matches ended in draws.

Onto the flip:

Nor'easters - Philadelphia Inventors

Strength coming from the bottom boards means that Nor'easters will be favored to win this match. But a draw is predicted.

Carolina Cobras - Manhattan Applesauce

Once again, the Cobras are underdogs, but last week they managed to draw the New Jersey Knockouts. However, the coin likes Applesauce's chances better. Applesauce wins.

St. Louis Archbishops - Dallas Destiny

After two magical seasons, the Dallas Destiny is struggling this year. Good thing St. Louis doesn't have their three GMs out, this time going for a more balanced lineup. Maybe their fourth board will actually go for the win this time. The coin flip goes to... the St. Louis Archbishops.

Chicago Blaze - Arizona Scorpians

Arizona Scorpians go for their fifth win against the Blaze, while the Blaze are looking for a win after last week's loss to the Vibe. Can they do it? Looks like neither team will get their wish. A draw is expected.

If I am totally off the mark for the Monday matches, a different system will be used to predict the Wednesday matches.

If you think my system for prediction is GREAT and ACCURATE!, please comment. Support would be wonderful.

--Alex Guo


Anonymous said...

Stop blowing smoke up are arses

Anonymous said...

Trouble is, there are three possible results. You need a three-sided coin!