Tuesday, September 21, 2010

The Wednesday Coin Flip: Some changes are going to have to be made...

Well, helloooo 0-4 record for the Monday Match Predictions. That's right. All of my predictions were dead wrong.
  • Nor'easters - Inventors: I predicted a draw, but the Nor'easters won.
  • Cobras - Applesauce: I predicted Applesauce to win, but it ended in a draw.
  • Archbishops - Destiny: I predicted St. Louis to win. Again, it ended in a draw.
  • Chicago - Scorpians: I predicted it to be a draw. But wow, the Scorpians actually lost this one.
I really find my terrible record quite amusing. I mean, getting all of the predictions wrong is every bit as RARE and awesome as getting all of my predictions right. Given that RARE events never happen simply by coincidence, there must've been something wrong with my system.

Well, certainly the probabilities are right. For Monday, 50% of the matches were drawn, albeit only through the game-losing blunders by Cobra's NM Agner and Archbishop's FM Eckert, while my coin flipping system gives draws a 50% chance of occuring.


Can you see what's wrong with the following picture? Don't worry if it doesn't strike you immediately at first. Frankly, it's really quite hard to find.

That's right. I'm sure you must've seen it: the coin I used, was the state quarter of North Dakota.

An apparently innocent decision to draw the first quarter out of my backpack has had a shockingly killer effect on my predicting record. And besides, WHO THE HECK LIVES IN NORTH DAKOTA ANYWAYS?? The people of North Dakota has been granted too much power in predicting matches. It's time to put an end to this outrage.



Since we are in Washington (or at least I am), why not use Washington's state quarter? Novel idea! So here we go, predicting the matches yet again, but this time, changing the coin to the Washington state quarter

New Jersey Knockouts - Boston Blitz

Two strong teams from the East are pitted against each other. New Jersey has the edge on board three, while the Blitz have the edge on board 4. Should be a tight match, but this time the Blitz will prevail over the New Jersey Knockouts.

Baltimore Kingfishers - New York Knights

Close match ups on boards 1 and 4. New York has the rating advantage on board 2 while the Kingfishers has an advantaeg on board 3. Another very close match, and the match will hover at a draw.

Miami Sharks - Seattle Sluggers

Huh, I wonder why Serper hasn't debuted yet? Our top two boards are struggling, and we could really use his help. Michael Lee is getting his first white in a long time, while Slava's gonna hold down the fort on board 1 against GM Julio Becerra. The Sluggers have a very slight rating advantage on boards 3 and 4, but they certainly won't be gimmes. Expect another close match, but this time, Seattle wins!!!! (Yes, I actually did flip the coin.)

San Francisco Mechanics - Los Angeles Vibe

The first CA vs CA team in USCL history! SF has brought out their two young guns while the Vibe puts a 2300 (really?) on first board. It almost like a lineup that you'd expect only from the Carolina Cobras. Clearly, SF is favored to win, though the coin flip is a draw. Hmm, I wonder whether that'll actually happen?

Tomorrow, expect better prediction results! Also go to http://bit.ly/cZVgpE in order to keep updated with what's going on at the Slugger blog and facebook page!
--Alex Guo

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I see that Guo's coin flipping has not found favor with the commish.